Iran executes man for mosque burning amid crackdown on protests

Iran executed a man for burning a mosque during January protests. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 are now at 3.8% YES, down from 4% yesterday.

Markets for Iranian regime fall by May 31 moved lower after the execution, which is part of a broader crackdown on protest-related activity. The Iran leadership change by December 31 sits at 31.5% YES, down from 36% a week ago. Traders are pricing in less likelihood of a leadership change in the near term.

For the May 31 leadership change, odds are at 8.5% YES, down from 18% last week. The gap between the May 31 and December 31 contracts is wide: 8.5% versus 31.5%. Traders appear to see potential catalysts later in the year but not in the immediate future.

Combined 24-hour USDC volume across these markets is $15,848, with the largest single price move being a 7-point drop in the May 31 market. It takes just under $1,000 to move this thin market five points, making it vulnerable to larger trades. The execution had a clear dampening effect on prices across all related contracts.

A YES share in the May 31 regime fall market priced at 3.8¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 26.3x return. For that to happen, significant destabilizing developments would need to emerge soon.

Watch for signals from IRGC leadership, any Assembly of Experts activity, or announcements of new economic measures, as these could shift market expectations.

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