Iran’s National Security Committee head announced expectations for a ceasefire extension with the US and plans for talks in Pakistan. The prospect of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 is at 38% YES, down from 59% a day ago.

The news has moved several related markets. The April 21 ceasefire end odds rose to 16%, up from 6% yesterday. The April 30 ceasefire market fell sharply, with traders skeptical that Iran’s overtures will produce a deal. With only 12 days left, the window for a resolution is narrow.

The ceasefire market has $80,435 in actual USDC traded daily, with $1,566 depth to move the price five points. This is moderate liquidity: trading is active, but larger orders can swing the odds meaningfully. The biggest move in the last 24 hours was a 4-point drop at 5:27 PM, likely triggered by the announcement.

Iran’s statement points to a temporary de-escalation and a diplomatic track through Pakistan. But the US naval blockade and unresolved nuclear demands keep the situation tense. At 38¢, a YES share on an April 30 ceasefire pays $1, a 2.63x return. That payout depends on breakthroughs in the upcoming Pakistan talks.

Watch for a formal announcement of resumed talks or confirmed intermediary involvement. Any shift in US rhetoric toward or away from negotiation would be the next major signal.

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