Iranian Revolutionary Guards fired warning shots at two vessels, including an Indian-flagged supertanker, forcing them back from the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 now sits at 7.5% YES, down from 12% a week ago.

About 20% of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The warning shots have pushed the odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 down to 65.5% YES, from 60% just 24 hours ago.

The UK warship market, currently priced at 5.5% YES, prices in heavy skepticism about immediate military involvement. It takes just $427 to shift this market by 5 percentage points, which makes it vulnerable to large trades. The Strait of Hormuz normalization market has deeper liquidity, requiring $3,730 for a comparable move.

The warning shots came as the ceasefire deadline approaches, raising the possibility of further escalation. A YES share for UK warships at 6¢ implies a 16.7x return, pricing in low confidence that the UK deploys without a more direct trigger.

Watch for official statements from the UK Ministry of Defence and any naval movements near the Strait. A confirmed warship deployment or a diplomatic breakthrough could move these odds fast.

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