An advisor to Iran’s Ghalibaf has given Trump 20 hours to surrender or face action from Iran’s allies. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

Iran’s statement suggests potential activation of its proxies, casting doubt on a ceasefire. The April 7 deadline is four days away, with the market nearly ruling out a resolution. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, indicating skepticism about near-term diplomacy.

Further out, the April 30 ceasefire odds fell to 17.5% from 24% in the last 24 hours. The May 31 market dropped to 36.5% YES, showing expectations of ongoing tension into early summer.

USDC volume is key. Nearly $431K traded across sub-markets in the last day. The April 7 market’s thin order book requires just $12,352 to shift the price 5 points. The April 30 market is more stable, needing almost $20K for the same move.

The ultimatum dims immediate ceasefire prospects. However, an April 30 resolution offers a 5.7x return on a 17.5¢ YES share if tensions ease soon.

Watch for diplomatic efforts from Oman or Qatar, or shifts in rhetoric from Trump or Iran. These could change the odds significantly.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.