Iran governed by IRGC-led committee post-war, regime change unlikely by June 30

Iran is now likely governed by a hardline IRGC-led committee following the 2026 Iran war. Iranian regime fall by June 30 is at 11.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

The odds increase reflects growing skepticism about the regime’s near-term survival, even as the IRGC consolidates power after the conflict. The June 30 sub-market has risen modestly over the past week, though the probability still implies traders see regime collapse as unlikely within this window.

The US-Iran ceasefire markets across all dates sit at 100% YES. The April 15 market jumped from 18% a week ago, and later-dated contracts have shown no movement, meaning traders treat the ceasefire as settled fact.

Volume on the regime fall market is $36,383 in USDC traded, with $22,171 in order book depth to move the price 5 points. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop earlier today, consistent with cautious positioning and no sudden directional conviction.

The IRGC’s control of governance makes regime change by June 30 a long-shot bet, but the economics of the contract are straightforward: a YES share at 11.5¢ pays $1 if the regime falls, a 8.7x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to expect specific destabilization events within 82 days.

Watch for IRGC internal fractures or an unexpected Assembly of Experts convening, either of which could signal instability. Public appearances by Mojtaba Khamenei would likely push odds in the opposite direction.

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