Iran imposes tolls on ships using Strait of Hormuz, impacting transit routes

Iran’s new law imposes tolls on ships using the Strait of Hormuz, with additional fees for certain nations. The market for 80 ships transiting the strait by April 30 sits at 5% YES, down from 17% yesterday.

Market reaction

The probability of 80 ships transiting by April 30 dropped from 17% to 5% YES after Iran’s announcement. The new law includes tolls denominated in Iranian rials and bans specific vessels, giving shipping operators a direct reason to reroute or delay.

Why it matters

The market trades $18,346/day in face value, but actual USDC traded is just $2,238, a thin market. It takes $946 to move the price by 5 points, meaning a few larger trades could still shift the odds considerably.

Iran’s decision to enforce tolls and seize non-compliant ships signals its intent to control the waterway directly. With seven days left until resolution, traders are pricing in serious skepticism about a surge in ship transit under these conditions. A YES share at 5¢ pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 20x return, but that bet requires believing in a major diplomatic breakthrough within a week.

What to watch

Any U.S. or allied naval action to maintain open passage, or a diplomatic intervention that changes trade dynamics. Admiral Cooper’s next update on U.S. Navy operations in the region could signal a shift.

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