Iran has reportedly instructed the Houthi rebels to prepare for the potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime passage to the Red Sea, contingent on any U.S. strikes against Iranian power infrastructure. This development adds tension to an already volatile situation following Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that has disrupted about 20% of the global oil supply. The possible closure of Bab el-Mandeb, which carries nearly 10% of the global oil trade, could further exacerbate energy supply disruptions, impacting approximately 25% of the world’s total oil and gas supply. Markets are closely monitoring these geopolitical tensions, with significant implications for global oil prices.

Key Takeaways

• Markets suggest an increased likelihood of disruption in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with pricing indicating a heightened risk of closure by the Houthis.
• WTI Crude Oil prices show a significant increase in expectations, with the possibility of hitting higher price targets in July consistent with the potential supply disruption.
• The current geopolitical climate appears consistent with scenarios where energy supply remains critically impacted, influencing market expectations for oil price increases.

What to Watch

Observers will be closely watching for any military actions by the U.S. against Iranian infrastructure, which could trigger the Houthi closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Developments in the Strait of Hormuz blockade and OPEC+ responses to the supply disruptions will also be key indicators of future market movements. Any official statements from involved parties, such as the U.S. Navy or Iranian officials, could significantly influence market perceptions and expectations.

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