Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz open as Trump claims mine clearance, nuclear pause

Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi announced the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open,” but Trump followed with claims of mine clearance and Iran suspending its nuclear program. The market for Trump’s blockade announcement by May 31 sits at 76.5% YES, unchanged.

Traders appear unfazed by the conflicting reports. The May 31 market holds at 76.5% YES. The April 19 market has dropped to 17.5% YES as its deadline approaches, which points to skepticism about any immediate resolution. Traders are betting more time is needed for concrete action.

The April 17 market is at 8% YES, pricing in almost no chance of a sudden breakthrough. The term structure shows a large gap between April 19 and May 31, with traders expecting potential developments in the latter half of the month.

Volume data adds context. USDC traded in these markets totals $33,928 in the last 24 hours. The order book depth shows it takes $3,730 to move the May 31 market five percentage points, which indicates decent liquidity and trader conviction. A 2-point spike occurred at 2:38 AM, likely a reaction to the news.

Trump’s sweeping claims lack verified agreements, and the market’s flat response at 82% for May 31 reflects a bet on eventual progress without confidence in anything imminent. At 76.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump announces the lift by then, a 1.22x return. For this bet to pay off, you’d need to believe a diplomatic breakthrough happens within 45 days.

Watch for White House statements or Trump social media posts confirming any official action. U.S. Navy operational changes in the Strait would also move these markets.

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