https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260531-iran-rejects-us-deal-without-full-guarantees-us-warns-it-can-resume-war
Iran may exit nuclear treaty if US attacks again, warns lawmaker
US-Iran deal in 2026
Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Rezaei has warned that a renewed U.S. attack on Iran might lead Tehran to contemplate exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Rezaei, representing the national security and foreign policy committee, highlighted potential shifts in Iran’s nuclear strategy and the strategic closure of critical maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb. This statement comes in the context of the ongoing 2026 Iran War, initiated by a U.S.-Israeli operation. The potential withdrawal from the NPT could escalate tensions further, as it would eliminate Iran’s legal obligation not to develop nuclear weapons, a move that could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape.
Market pricing appears to reflect these developments as decreasing the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026. The market for the inclusion of Iran Reconstruction Funding in a potential deal has shown a notable decrease in the probability of a YES outcome. Over the past 24 hours, odds have dropped significantly across multiple sub-markets, indicating increased skepticism about the prospects for a diplomatic resolution.
Key Takeaways
- The statement by Rezaei appears consistent with a scenario where Iran might leave the NPT, potentially heightening tensions and impacting nuclear negotiations.
- Market pricing suggests a decrease in the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026, with YES odds falling sharply across related prediction markets.
- Recent activity reflects heightened uncertainty about the future of diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran.
What to Watch
Observers should monitor any further military actions by the U.S. and Iran, as these could significantly influence diplomatic negotiations. Key indicators to watch include any announcements from the Iranian or U.S. governments regarding the NPT and any further military developments in the region. The potential closure of strategic straits by Iran would also be a critical factor, further complicating the geopolitical situation and market sentiment around a U.S.-Iran deal.
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