Iran may halt Hormuz disruptions to aid diplomatic talks

Iran is reportedly considering halting disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to keep diplomatic talks on track. The odds of Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade by May 31 are at 81% YES.

The news moved several related markets. The Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market for April 19 jumped to 28.5% YES, up 5 points, which suggests traders see a possible catalyst within the next week. The Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz market stayed flat at 8.5% YES.

Combined 24-hour face value across these markets hit $314,186, though actual USDC traded was a more modest $34,287. It took $1,781 to shift the April 19 odds by 5 points, which means moving prices here requires real capital. Activity is steady, but large positions are what drive the numbers.

For traders, the source tier on this report isn’t top-notch, but the fact that Iran itself is reportedly considering easing tensions gives it weight. A YES share for the blockade lifting by April 19 at 29¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 3.4x return. That’s a bet on imminent diplomacy at long-shot pricing.

Watch for Trump statements or announcements from the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Changes in major shipping line routing or official statements from either side in the next few days would be the clearest signals.

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