Iran may skip Tuesday’s nuclear talks in Pakistan, citing US demands and a blockade. Odds for a uranium enrichment agreement by April 30 sit at 29.9% YES, up from 27% a day ago.

Iran’s threatened no-show is moving related markets. US-Iran ceasefire odds for April 30 are at 32.5% YES, unchanged from a week ago. The ceasefire end by April 21 is at 6.0%, down from 36% a week ago. With only 1 day left, this market shows little belief in an imminent announcement.

The uranium enrichment agreement market has $12,725 in actual USDC traded daily, and the recent 8-point spike suggests traders see a possible breakthrough. But it only takes $328 to move this market by 5 points, meaning even moderate trades can swing the price. The ceasefire market is thicker, requiring $6,999 to shift 5 points, which points to stronger conviction among traders there.

If Iran walks away from talks, expect the enrichment agreement odds to fall. At 36¢, a YES share pays $1 if Iran agrees by April 30, a 2.78x return. Traders banking on a deal need talks to resume within the next 10 days.

Watch for statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader or a surprise visit by intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Any last-minute diplomatic contact could move these odds fast.

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