Iran mine dumping disrupts 20% of global oil supply in Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s mine dumping in the Strait of Hormuz has created a zone disrupting 20% of global oil supply. The odds for military action against Iran by April 15 are at 9% YES.

Market reaction

The Strait of Hormuz situation has traders on edge. Markets for UK strikes on Iran by April 30 and others are priced at 4% YES. All markets remain flat, with no significant movement over the past week. Traders appear skeptical about immediate action, given the current ceasefire and ongoing peace talks in Pakistan. The April 15 market shows a 4-point rise over the last day, pointing to a slight increase in concern.

Why it matters

Trading volume tells a different story than the low headline odds suggest. The “other countries” market, with $6,516 in USDC traded over 24 hours, is the most active. A 3-point spike at 1:19 PM hints at a large order or sudden shift in sentiment. Order book depth of $447 to move 5 points shows how sensitive this market is to any sizable trade.

Iran’s actions in Hormuz complicate the probability of a diplomatic resolution. The inability to locate the mines and the lack of adequate minesweeping capabilities on both sides raise tensions further. At 22%, a YES share for military action by April 30 pays $1, a 4.5x return. The gap between the April 15 and April 30 contracts suggests traders see military action as more likely in the second half of April.

What to watch

Vice President JD Vance’s movements in Pakistan and statements from the Saudi Ministry of Defense. Either could signal shifts toward or away from military escalation.

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