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Iran launched missile attacks on Kuwait, and the UAE is joining a US-led mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz. A ceasefire by April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire across April dates have dropped. April 15 is at 6% YES, down from 8% a day ago. The UAE’s military involvement suggests a widening conflict, reducing chances for a quick resolution. The April 30 market has fallen to 18% YES from 24% yesterday, showing traders’ skepticism about near-term peace.
The likelihood of US forces entering Iran by April 30 has surged to 86% YES, up from 62% in the last 24 hours. The UAE joining the US-led mission increases the probability of ground operations, with the December 31 market also rising to 90% YES, reflecting expectations of prolonged hostilities.
The ceasefire market’s USDC traded volume is $431,402, with a $12,352 order book depth needed to move the April 7 odds 5 points, indicating traders aren’t heavily betting on a ceasefire. In contrast, the US forces market has $5,069,224 in USDC traded, with an $84,737 depth needed to shift odds, showing confidence in imminent US military action.
The UAE’s involvement marks a significant escalation, making a near-term ceasefire less likely. A YES share for the April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if it resolves, but at 1¢, traders see little chance of that payout. The UAE’s participation could lead to more regional allies joining, potentially forcing a diplomatic pivot, but for now, the odds reflect an expectation of further military engagement.
Watch for CENTCOM operational updates and any shifts in diplomatic language from the US or Iran. The Pentagon’s next press briefing could clarify troop movements, with any confirmation of ground operations likely to push odds further.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 86.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 90.5% YES
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