Iran’s oil production may stop if the US blockade holds, threatening to cut off 1.5-2 million barrels per day. Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement market sits at 84% YES for May 31, up from 79% yesterday.

The blockade’s outcome reaches beyond oil. The April 19 market is at 25% YES, a 6-point jump overnight. Traders are pricing in a mid-April catalyst. The April 17 market remains low at 11.5% YES with only two days left.

Total volume across these markets is $30,880 in USDC, so the book is thin. It takes just $41 to move the April 19 odds by 5 points, which means single trades can cause large swings. The largest recent move was that 6-point spike on April 19, likely from one significant trade or a news event.

If Iran’s oil exports halt, prices could surge. The WTI crude hitting $160 by April market may draw more activity if the blockade looks durable. This is an economic chokehold: roughly 20% of global oil transit passes through Hormuz.

Watch for statements from Trump or the Pentagon. A shift in naval posture or direct negotiation signals could move these odds fast.

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