Iran open to US deal if rights respected, says speaker amid ceasefire

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf expressed openness to a deal with the US, provided it respects Iran’s rights, a statement that affects the probability of a permanent peace deal by April 22 on Polymarket, though the contract sits at an unspecified percentage.

Market reaction

Ghalibaf’s remarks come during a fragile US-Iran-Israel ceasefire set to last until April 15, currently priced at 100% YES. The April 30 and later ceasefire contracts also show full confidence in continued ceasefire, meaning traders treat the negotiations as credible. The permanent peace deal contract remains uncertain but has moved in response to diplomatic signals like Ghalibaf’s statement.

Why it matters

No real money is moving in these markets. Combined 24-hour volume is at $0, which points to either skepticism or a wait-and-see posture before traders commit capital. Because of the absent trading activity, even small trades could cause large price swings. The source of Ghalibaf’s comments is tier-3, which may limit their market impact.

What to watch

At current odds, a YES share for a permanent peace deal could be undervalued if negotiations advance. The real catalyst will be whether official talks in Islamabad produce concrete compromises, or whether the US signals readiness to recognize Iran’s rights. Watch Trump’s rhetoric and any announcements from US or Iranian officials, particularly those involving intermediary nations like Pakistan. The next steps in Islamabad could shift these contracts sharply.

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