Iran, Pakistan confirm Lebanon, allies in ceasefire framework

Iran’s Ghalibaf and Pakistan’s PM confirmed Lebanon and allied groups are part of the ceasefire. The ceasefire by April 15 market is now at 100.0% YES, up from 18% a week ago.

The ceasefire’s inclusion of Lebanon and Iranian allies like Hezbollah could reduce tensions, though Israeli strikes continue. The term structure across all dates shows no spread, with each sub-market at 100% YES. April 15 is just 6 days away, suggesting traders see the ceasefire holding short-term. The April 30 market and beyond also sit at 100% YES, indicating strong conviction that the ceasefire will last.

Trading volume hit $3.23M in actual USDC over the last 24 hours. The April 30 market alone sees $687K daily. That level of liquidity means large orders won’t easily move prices, and points to firm trader confidence in the ceasefire.

This broad inclusion could either prevent escalation or prove aspirational if tensions in Lebanon flare. For traders, YES at 100¢ pays $1, effectively break-even unless new information disrupts the current pricing. Watch for hawkish rhetoric or proxy attacks that could challenge these odds.

Keep an eye on the Islamabad Talks on April 10. Any diplomatic breakthroughs or setbacks there will directly affect market positioning.

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