Iran proposes economic concessions in 10-point peace plan amid rising tensions

James Mackintosh’s analysis of a business prospect linked to Iran’s 10-point peace plan has pushed ceasefire markets to their ceiling. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 is at 100% YES, up from 18% just a week ago.

Iran proposed economic concessions in exchange for security guarantees as part of the 10-point plan, even as Israeli actions in Lebanon have added tension to the diplomatic picture. The April 15 market, now priced at 100%, leaves no room for disagreement among traders. April 30, May 31, June 30, and December 31 markets are also locked at 100%.

Trading volume across these markets is $3,232,549 in USDC over the last 24 hours. It takes roughly $687K to move the April 30 market 5 percentage points, which points to serious capital behind these positions rather than thin speculative activity.

Iran’s willingness to negotiate and Trump’s initial characterization of the plan as “workable” have fueled this confidence, though the proposal has drawn criticism. The 10-point plan focuses on economic leverage rather than immediate military withdrawal, which softened earlier skepticism. But buying YES at 100¢ offers zero margin for error. Any unexpected military action could break the consensus overnight.

Watch for shifts in Trump’s rhetoric or further Israeli actions in Lebanon. Hegseth’s upcoming Pentagon briefing may clarify military intentions and could move these markets if the tone changes.

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