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A temporary ceasefire was reached with Iran amid ongoing disputes and proxy fighting, with odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 locked at
Market reaction
Markets for April 15 and April 30 have both hit 100% YES, with no expected deviation in the short term. The sharpest move was a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM, jumping from 67% to 90% for April 15. May 31 odds sit at 99.9% YES. June and December markets are both at 100% YES.
Why it matters
Combined daily face value volume is $16.3M, with actual USDC traded at $5.2M. The largest price moves in the past 24 hours came during late evening hours, driven by high-volume trades that pushed odds to 100% and held them there. Order book depth shows it takes significant capital to shift odds by 5 points, which signals strong trader conviction.
The risk of renewed escalation remains high because of ongoing proxy conflicts and Iran’s rejection of prior US proposals. Traders appear to be pricing in a temporary resolution rather than long-term peace. At 100% YES, there is no upside left unless unexpected developments emerge.
What to watch
Any shifts in rhetoric from Trump or CENTCOM, or reports of progress from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, could disrupt the current market certainty.
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