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Iran reactivates missile bunkers as U.S. and Israel increase military support and warnings. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
The market’s reaction to Operation Roaring Lion has been swift. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, reflecting ongoing military actions and lack of diplomatic progress. Meanwhile, the chances of US forces entering Iran by April 30 have risen to 86% YES, up from 62% just 24 hours ago.
The ceasefire market shows a notable shift. April 7 at 1% YES is flatlined, and the April 30 market sits at 18% YES, down from 40% a week ago. Odds jump from 18% to 36% between April 30 and May 31, suggesting traders expect a potential catalyst then. The December 31 market remains the most optimistic at 68% YES, indicating longer-term hope for resolution.
USDC spent in these markets is telling. The US forces entry market sees $4.2M in daily USDC traded, with an $84,737 order book depth, suggesting robust institutional interest. In contrast, the ceasefire markets are thinner, with only $431K in 24h USDC — a single large order can swing these odds significantly.
Iran’s reactivation of missile bunkers and the U.S.’s increased military aid to Israel point to a sustained conflict. The odds reflect trader sentiment that ground forces entering Iran is increasingly likely, while a ceasefire remains elusive. For traders, a YES share for US forces in Iran by April 30 at 86¢ pays $1 if resolved — a 1.16x return, suggesting strong confidence in escalation.
Watch for any Pentagon operational statements or changes in rhetoric from key actors like Trump or CENTCOM. A shift in these narratives could materially impact market odds.
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