Iran reasserts control over Strait of Hormuz amid US naval blockade

Iran has reimposed control over the Strait of Hormuz, citing unresolved issues in peace talks and the ongoing U.S. naval blockade. The market on Trump announcing the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31 sits at 74% YES, down from 90% yesterday.

The April 19 market crashed to 3.9% YES from 28% yesterday with just one day left. The May 31 contract remains higher but dropped 12 points, a sign traders doubt a near-term resolution.

The US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 fell to 37.5% YES from 59% yesterday. Stalled negotiations and escalating tensions are driving the selloff.

Combined daily trading volume across these markets is $29,602 in USDC. It takes $1,419 to move the May 31 market by 5 points, which indicates moderate liquidity. The largest single move was a 6-point drop in the April 19 market at 6:05 PM, likely a large order reacting to the blockade news.

Iran’s reassertion of control over Hormuz while the U.S. blockade continues is a straightforward de-escalation failure. At 3.9¢, a YES share for an April 19 resolution pays $1, a 12.5x return. But that bet requires believing a breakthrough happens within hours, which current signals don’t support.

Watch for Trump statements, CENTCOM operational updates, or Iranian state media. Any softening in rhetoric or a new negotiation framework could move these contracts fast.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.