Iran regime collapse seen as unlikely by April 30 despite economic woes

JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre says Iran’s economic collapse is closer than ever, but the regime fall by April 30 market has moved to 0.5% YES, down from 1% yesterday.

Eyre’s comments have driven interest in the May 31 market, currently at 3.6% YES. The spread between April 30 and May 31 suggests traders price a higher chance of regime collapse beyond the immediate window. The Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 market also moved up to 6.5% YES.

The April 30 regime fall market has $9,300 in actual USDC volume, and it would take $34,065 to shift odds by 5 points. The May 31 market is more liquid at $27,933 in actual USDC, requiring only $11,119 for the same shift. The largest 24-hour price movement was a slight uptick in the Pahlavi return market, which remains a long shot.

Eyre’s comments come from a tier-3 source, which limits their weight. His analogy of a wounded state running on adrenaline is stark, but the regime has survived past economic crises. A YES share for regime fall by April 30 trades at 0.5¢, offering a 200x return, a bet on severe destabilization within a week.

Watch for moves by Mojtaba Khamenei and any major defections reported by credible sources. Either would sharply reprice these markets.

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