Iran has reinstated restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, alleging US violations of a reopening agreement. The Polymarket contract on Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 holds at 85% YES, unchanged from a day ago.

## Market reaction

Iran’s reversal has not moved the May 31 market, which sits at 85% YES, meaning traders still price in a resolution before that deadline. The April 19 market is at 17.5% YES, showing little confidence in an immediate breakthrough. The April 30 market has fallen to 63% YES from 60% previously.

Combined daily volume across these three markets is $33,928 in USDC. The order book on the May 31 contract requires $3,730 to move the price five points, which points to meaningful liquidity and relatively firm positioning on a mid-term resolution.

## Why it matters

Iran’s reimposition of restrictions shows how unstable the current negotiating framework is. The market is still bullish on a blockade lift by May 31 but much less confident about April. Buying YES at 63¢ on the April 30 contract offers a potential 2x return, but that bet requires a rapid improvement in US-Iran relations within roughly two weeks.

## What to watch

US Navy statements and any changes in military posture near the strait are the most direct signals. New diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran, or third-party mediation efforts, would also shift the calculus on the April and May contracts.

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