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Iran has rejected a ceasefire, demanding a permanent resolution as tensions rise. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% from 2% yesterday.
This rejection follows Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars petrochemical plant and the killing of the IRGC intelligence chief. The April 7 market is at 1% YES, with only four days until resolution. Odds have fallen from 12% a week ago. The April 30 market is at 18% YES, showing skepticism about de-escalation despite Trump’s final deadline.
Traders expect potential catalysts in early May, with odds jumping from 18% on April 30 to 36% by May 31. The outlook is bearish for a quick ceasefire, given recent military actions and Trump’s hardline stance.
US-Iran ceasefire markets show volume at $431K in USDC over 24 hours. Moving the price 5 points for the April 15 market requires $40K, indicating limited liquidity. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike for April 30, likely due to a large order.
The ceasefire rejection and IRGC killing increase instability in Iran, raising regime fall odds. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market rose to 14%, up from 12% yesterday. At 14¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — a 7x return. Traders must believe internal instability could lead to regime collapse within 88 days.
Traders should watch Trump’s language for signs of ‘productive’ talks or new intermediaries, which might raise odds. More strikes or retaliations could further decrease ceasefire chances. Monitor IRGC movements and diplomatic efforts from Qatar and Oman for market shifts.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 13.5% YES
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