Iran has rejected the European Union’s call to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, raising the prospect of escalation in the region. WTI crude oil hitting $160 in April is at 1.4% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The market for WTI crude oil is thin, with $704 in actual USDC traded daily, though a $1,655 move is needed to shift odds by 5 points. The most notable price action in the last 24 hours was a 25-point spike at 8:02 PM, showing sensitivity to geopolitical developments. Current odds for WTI crude hitting $160 are low, but any escalation around Hormuz could move them quickly.

Why it matters

The rejection comes amid a fragile ceasefire in a conflict involving a US-Israel-led coalition. The Strait of Hormuz is the transit point for roughly a fifth of global oil supply, and Iran’s refusal to guarantee open passage raises the risk of renewed blockades. This could be a bargaining chip or a genuine hardening of Iran’s position against Western demands, and either reading has different implications for crude prices.

What to watch

Announcements from OPEC+ or any diplomatic moves from the US or EU regarding Hormuz are the next catalysts. Traders need to assess whether a significant escalation is plausible within the next two weeks for the $160 target to come into play.

At current prices, buying YES at 1.4¢ offers a 71.4x return if the price target is reached.

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