Iran rejects Trump’s claim on Strait of Hormuz, impacting peace deal sentiment

Iranian presidential spokesperson Seyyed Mohammad Mehdi Tabatabaei denounced Trump’s claim that Iran agreed not to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 45% YES.

Trump’s statement and Iran’s swift rebuttal have traders reevaluating peace deal odds. The April 22 market is at 45% YES, the April 30 market at 67% YES, and the May 31 date at 76.5% YES, with a 24-point jump in the past week.

USDC volume is $267,520 and $179,244 for the April markets. Order book depth requires over $16K to move the April 22 market by 5 points, which points to institutional positioning rather than retail-driven volatility.

Iran’s rejection of Trump’s claim signals ongoing distrust and weighs on short-term sentiment. At 14¢, a YES share pays $1 if the April 22 peace deal happens, a 7.14x return. Buying YES here means betting on a diplomatic breakthrough within 6 days.

Watch for statements from US or Iranian officials that clarify or escalate the situation. Any explicit peace agreement announcement would matter most, especially from Abbas Araghchi or Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

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