Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf called Trump’s claims “false,” and the market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 52.5% YES, up from 28% a week ago.

Ghalibaf’s comments suggest Iran is taking a hardline stance. The Trump agreeing to Iranian Oil sanction relief market now sits at 52.5% YES, a 2-point increase from 24 hours ago. Some traders are still betting on concessions despite the tough talk.

The market maintains around $5,588 in daily face value and $1,975 in actual USDC, with $330 moving the market 5 points. The largest move was a 2-point drop at 12:19 PM. The market is sensitive to even small trades at this liquidity level.

Ghalibaf’s rejection of Trump’s statements could be posturing rather than a policy shift. Iran’s tough stance may be a negotiating tactic rather than a definitive position. For traders, buying YES at 52.5¢ offers a potential 2.78x return if Trump agrees to sanctions relief. But with no tangible progress, that bet requires a belief that behind-the-scenes diplomacy is moving quickly.

Watch for changes in rhetoric from the White House or new statements from Iranian officials. A pivot from either side could shift these odds fast. Key figures to track: Ali Shamkhani and Ibrahim Azizi on the Iranian side, and any White House announcements on sanctions policy.

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