Iran rejects US proposal in ‘last chance’ talks, ceasefire risk grows

State media have labeled the ongoing US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad as the “last chance” for an agreement, while Iran’s Foreign Minister has rejected the US proposal. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 sits at 100% YES, though the probability of a permanent peace deal faces pressure.

The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market is fully priced at 100% YES because the existing ceasefire agreement is still in effect. But the “last chance” rhetoric and Iran’s Foreign Minister rejecting the US proposal suggest extending beyond April 15 could be difficult. Traders are watching the April 30 and later markets, also priced at 100% YES, though these may face reassessment if talks stall.

The permanent peace deal market looks unfavorable given the current diplomatic situation. The “last chance” framing and Iran’s firm rejection of the US proposal lower the odds of a deal by April 22. Low volume and face value trading across these markets show traders are holding back, waiting for clearer signals from Islamabad before committing.

The ceasefire remains intact, but the risk of escalation grows if talks collapse. A YES share for a ceasefire by April 30 or beyond is priced at 100¢, meaning traders expect no immediate breakdown. Any shift in language or renewed military activity could move these odds quickly.

Watch for announcements from US Vice President JD Vance or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. A change in tone or a shift in negotiation terms could move these markets.

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