Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz amid US-brokered ceasefire with Israel, Lebanon

On day 50 of the US-Iran conflict, Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz for commercial vessels as part of a US-brokered 10-day ceasefire with Israel and Lebanon. The market for a permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 22 is at 30.5% YES.

The Strait reopening and Trump’s optimism for a deal by April 22 moved odds modestly. The April 22 market sits at 30.5%, up from 12% last week. The April 30 market jumped to 45.5%, a 17-point increase over the week, as traders price in a breakthrough arriving after April 22. The term structure shows a 21-point jump from April 30 to May 31, meaning traders expect the most likely window for a deal falls in that range.

The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by April 30 remains at 1% YES. This tracks with current de-escalation signals, even though the US naval blockade persists. The largest single move was a 4-point drop at 4:44 PM, likely driven by ceasefire optimism.

Volume at $698,114 in real USDC traded over the last 24 hours across the peace deal markets. It takes $16,401 to move the April 22 market 5 points, which points to a robust order book. A 4-point spike at 12:18 AM shows some traders are betting on an imminent deal.

The Strait reopening is a positive but fragile step. Iran’s conditions on the blockade and nuclear program mean negotiations are far from resolved. A YES share for the April 22 peace deal pays $1 if resolved, a 6.7x return at 15¢. For those odds to make sense, you’d need to believe in a rapid breakthrough within six days.

Watch for Trump’s language in upcoming statements and any confirmation of intermediary involvement by Oman or Qatar. An announcement of high-level meetings or a shift in rhetoric could move these odds fast.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.