Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz, easing Bitcoin market tensions

The US-Iran ceasefire and Iran’s commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have steadied risk sentiment across prediction markets. Bitcoin’s odds of reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026 now sit at 36.5%, up from 31% yesterday.

Market reaction

Reduced geopolitical risk removes one headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets. The move in the Bitcoin market was relatively modest, with a one-point spike at 11:31 PM. While the $100,000 market climbed, the $150,000 market stays less optimistic at 9%, flat over the past week.

Why it matters

USDC volume in these markets tells the real story. The $100,000 sub-market sees $4,214 in daily trading, and it takes $8,405 to move the price five points, which suggests reasonable liquidity. The $150,000 market is much thinner: just $2,029 moves the price by the same amount, making it far more speculative.

The ceasefire’s effect on oil prices indirectly matters for Bitcoin because lower oil prices ease inflationary pressure, which makes risk assets more attractive. But this is a fragile equilibrium. At 36.5¢, buying YES on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end pays 2.74x if it hits. That bet requires sustained geopolitical calm and favorable macro conditions to pay off.

What to watch

Announcements from large Bitcoin holders like MicroStrategy or regulatory moves from the SEC could shift these odds quickly.

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