Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz, oil tanker traffic surges

Iran has announced the Strait of Hormuz is open, sparking a surge in oil tanker traffic. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 75% YES, down from 60% yesterday.

The April 30 sub-market dropped 9.5 points despite the reopening announcement, likely because traders doubt traffic will stay normal through month-end. The May 31 sub-market holds at 92% YES, unchanged from the previous day. Traders are pricing in a much higher chance of stable resolution with an extra month of runway.

Volume over the past 24 hours is $32,234 in USDC. Just $354 would shift April’s odds by 5 percentage points, a sign of thin liquidity and potential for sharp moves. The largest single move was a 4-point drop at 6:46 PM, pointing to a concentrated sell-off.

The reopening is a step toward de-escalation, but the market is pricing in real doubt. A YES share at 75¢ pays $1 if normal traffic holds through April 30, but the bet depends on sustained stability after weeks of disruption.

Watch for concrete signs of increased tanker traffic and any response from the US 5th Fleet or IRGC Navy. These will determine whether the strait is genuinely stabilizing or whether another disruption is coming.

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