Iran requests ceasefire amid Operation Epic Fury continuation

Iran’s request for a ceasefire comes as Operation Epic Fury continues. The ceasefire by April 15 market is now at 100.0% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

The April 15 sub-market surged to 100.0% YES. The April 30, May 31, and June 30 markets all sit at 100.0% YES, meaning traders expect the ceasefire to hold well beyond the initial deadline.

The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market has dropped to 8.5% YES, down from 12% a day ago. Traders are pricing in a lower probability of regime collapse now that ceasefire talks are underway.

Combined USDC volume over 24 hours hit $5,188,952, with a 24-point spike in the April 15 market overnight. The depth required to move prices five points across these markets remains substantial, which points to genuine conviction rather than thin-book noise.

Iran’s ceasefire request marks a shift from military escalation toward diplomacy. Conflicting accounts on terms remain unresolved. For traders, buying YES at 100¢ offers no upside, but those holding pre-spike positions stand to collect.

Watch for intermediary actions from Oman and Qatar, any official confirmation of terms, and statements from Trump or Rubio. These will either lock in the current pricing or reopen uncertainty in the longer-dated markets.

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