Iran restricts oil shipping despite US-Iran ceasefire reducing violence

The ceasefire has reduced violence, but Iran continues to restrict oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market is at 100% YES.

While violence has lessened, the partial reopening of the strait reveals Iran’s strategic hold. The April 15 ceasefire market surged from 18% a week ago to 100% now. The April 30 and May 31 markets also sit at 100% YES, pointing to strong belief in continued diplomatic progress.

The US forces entry into Iran by April 30 market also shows 100% YES, up from 55% a week ago. The ceasefire and diplomatic talks have not yet pushed this market down, even as de-escalation expectations grow.

USDC volume in the ceasefire markets is $3,232,549 over 24 hours, showing healthy liquidity. The largest single move, a jump from 99% to 100%, occurred without major price swings, consistent with steady confidence. The US forces market, with $93,969,607 traded in USDC, retains its high face value, though the ceasefire suggests eventual downward pressure.

Iran’s ongoing shipping restrictions look more like a strategic bargaining position than full compliance or de-escalation. Traders holding the ceasefire at 100¢ may see a straightforward resolution, but any substantial shift in Iran’s stance or US rhetoric could change the picture. For a YES share to pay $1, you’d need to believe in a peaceful outcome beyond rhetoric.

Watch for the April 10 talks in Pakistan. Any concessions or escalations will matter. Increased shipping activity or a formal agreement could shift odds significantly.

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