Iran has restricted vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US naval blockade. The ceasefire-by-April-21 market sits at 16% YES, down from 33% a week ago.

The April 21 ceasefire market dropped sharply after Iran’s move, with the largest single shift being a 1-point drop at 6:21 PM. Traders clearly read the Hormuz restriction as raising the risk of further escalation. The June 30 diplomatic meeting market remains flat at 2% YES.

The ceasefire market trades $2,128/day in USDC, with $2,103 required to shift odds by 5 points. That thinness means small trades produce large price swings. The diplomatic meeting market is even thinner at $104 in daily USDC volume, making it especially volatile.

Iran’s restriction on the strait is a direct escalation that makes a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough before mid-April less likely. At 9¢, a YES share pays $1 if the ceasefire is announced by April 21, a 11x return. That payout requires rapid de-escalation from a situation where both sides are actively tightening military postures.

Watch for official US and Iranian statements in the coming days. Back-channel talks or third-party mediation efforts would be the most likely catalysts to move these markets. US State Department or Iranian foreign ministry announcements are the signals to track.

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