Four Iranian protesters face execution for national security violations and alleged US collaboration. The Iranian regime’s fall by June 30 is at 10.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

The sentencing comes during the regime’s intensified crackdown as conflicts with the US and Israel continue. This has traders watching the June 30 market, which resolves if the regime collapses or the Supreme Leader is replaced. The active sub-market for June 30 moved from 8% to 10.5% YES, driven by the sentencing and broader protest suppression.

With 79 days left until resolution, the market trades nearly $85K in USDC daily, suggesting moderate liquidity. The order book depth requires $27,572 to shift odds by 5 points, making it resistant to small-scale manipulation. The largest recent shift was a 1-point spike, pointing to a gradual increase in trader conviction rather than a knee-jerk reaction.

This matters because the execution threat could backfire, catalyzing further unrest and eroding internal support, particularly within the IRGC and political elite. A YES share at 11¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 9.1x return. For this bet to make sense, you’d need to believe that intensified repression leads to significant internal fractures or that external pressures accelerate regime change.

Watch for signs of dissent within the IRGC or unexpected moves by the Assembly of Experts, either of which could shift market sentiment sharply. Mojtaba Khamenei’s public appearances, or lack thereof, might signal internal instability.

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