Iran shares ceasefire proposals with Pakistan amid Strait of Hormuz talks

Iran has communicated its proposals and “red lines” regarding the Strait of Hormuz and regional ceasefire terms to Pakistan’s prime minister. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100% YES.

Iran’s active diplomacy points toward a continued ceasefire, with the April 30 market and beyond at full confidence. But the market for a permanent peace deal hasn’t reached similar levels. The sharing of proposals indicates ongoing negotiations but hasn’t translated into tangible commitments for a lasting agreement.

Volume sits at zero face value, meaning there has been no recent trading activity. This thin environment means any significant diplomatic news could move odds quickly given the low liquidity. The absence of volume also suggests traders are waiting for concrete developments from the Islamabad talks.

Iran’s willingness to outline its terms directly with Pakistan could reduce the probability of Trump announcing the ceasefire’s end, since Iran’s diplomatic engagement makes immediate escalation less likely. At 22¢, a YES share in the permanent peace deal market would pay $1 if resolved, a potential 4.5x return. That bet makes sense mainly if you expect real progress out of Islamabad.

Watch the Islamabad talks today. Announcements from Trump, Araghchi, or Sharif confirming a permanent framework or continued mediation would be the most likely catalysts for market movement.

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