Iran’s Baghaei confirmed ongoing communication with China and Russia as part of a response to U.S. actions in the Gulf. The odds for a US-Iran peace deal by April 22 sit at 16.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.
The market for a US-Iran peace deal by April 22 dropped over 20 points in the last 24 hours, with only 4 days left until the deadline. Odds for later dates have also fallen: April 30 is at 31.5% and May 31 at 58.5% YES, meaning traders are pushing deal expectations further out. The US-Iran diplomatic meeting market for no qualifying meeting by June 30 remains low at 1.3% YES.
The peace deal market has a combined 24h USDC volume of $1.64M. It takes $9,404 to move the April 22 deadline odds by 5 points, which means the price is relatively stable unless a large order comes through.
Baghaei’s statement on Iran’s ties with China and Russia points to a multilateral strategy that reduces the likelihood of direct US-Iran negotiations. This matches the market’s bearish pricing on immediate diplomatic breakthroughs. A YES share at 16.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 5x return, but the market is pricing low confidence.
Watch for shifts in US military posture or statements from CENTCOM, as these could move odds quickly. New sanctions or military actions from the Trump administration would be the most direct catalysts.
