Iran Supreme Leader to address war as US-Iran ceasefire talks approach

Iran’s Supreme Leader is set to release a message on the war, timed to the 40-day mark since the death of his predecessor. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100% YES, up from 18% a week ago.

Market reaction

The ceasefire markets for April 15, April 30, and beyond are all locked at 100% YES. The April 15 market moved from 18% to 100% in one week, ahead of peace talks set for April 7. The June 30 regime fall market is at 11.5% YES, up from 8%. The upcoming statement, though, points to a government still functioning and engaging publicly.

Why it matters

The ceasefire market has daily face value of $4.2M and actual USDC traded at $3.2M, enough liquidity that large orders can move the price. The regime fall market, with $36,383 in actual USDC traded, is far thinner and vulnerable to volatility from single large trades.

What to watch

The Supreme Leader’s message could signal Iran’s commitment to the ceasefire or hint at future actions. A YES share in the regime fall market at 12¢ pays $1 if the regime collapses by June 30, an 8.3x return. That bet requires believing a major destabilizing event happens within 82 days.

Watch for language on Iran’s strategic priorities, any mention of Hormuz, or shifts in military posture. The talks in Islamabad on April 7 will test whether Iran’s position holds.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.