Iran takes control of Hormuz passage as tensions rise with US

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has taken control of ship passage conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100% YES, even after this escalation.

The markets look irrational given Iran’s move on Hormuz and the drone strike on a Saudi oil pipeline. April 15 odds at 100% YES mean traders expect a formal ceasefire announcement within a week. The April 30 market is also at 100% YES, with no discount for the ongoing tensions.

The term structure is flat across all dates, with no price differential between resolution windows. The largest single move in the last 24 hours was a 24-point spike for April 15, driven by $1,385,525 in USDC volume. The market appears to be ignoring ongoing military actions and ceasefire violations.

This looks like a mispricing of geopolitical risk. Iran’s control over Hormuz and continued strikes directly undermine the ceasefire’s stability. If traders are banking on a formal announcement, recent events warrant reassessment. Betting YES at 100¢ yields zero return, and the underlying conditions suggest this confidence is wrong.

Watch for CENTCOM statements, potential intermediary moves by Qatar or Oman, or any shift in rhetoric from Trump or Iranian officials. Any of these could reprice the market quickly.

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