Iran’s threat to exit talks with the US has led to an Israeli pause on strikes in Beirut. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100.0% YES, with six days until the deadline.

Sub-markets for April 15 and April 30 are both at 100.0% YES. The May 31 contract and later dates also show total confidence in a ceasefire. Iran’s threat to withdraw from talks introduces uncertainty that these prices don’t yet reflect. Trading volume is at $3.2M in USDC over the last 24 hours.

The term structure shows no price movement across any timeline, meaning traders see little immediate risk of escalation from Iran’s threats. At 100% across the board, though, even a minor disruption could move prices sharply since there’s no room for further upside.

Iran’s use of the Strait of Hormuz as leverage and its conditions tied to halting Israeli attacks on Beirut complicate the picture. Traders are pricing in a resolution, but a breakdown in talks or resumed military action would force a repricing.

Watch for statements from JD Vance and Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf as US and Iranian negotiators meet. Any confirmed break in talks or shift in rhetoric would move this market.

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