Iran to limit, raise costs for ships from US-sanctioned countries at Hormuz

Iran will impose limits and increase costs for ships from countries backing US sanctions. The odds of Trump lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31 sit at 81% YES.

Iran’s move is a moderate escalation, directly affecting the Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market. The April 15 odds are down to 6% YES, a sharp drop from 16% just 24 hours ago. The April 17 sub-market is at 16.5% YES. Major movements are expected between April 19 and May 31, when the market jumps 52 points, suggesting traders foresee a catalyst during this window.

In the Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz market, odds for UK warships transit by April 30 have dropped to 8.5% YES from 14% yesterday. Low depth ($508 to move 5pts) indicates this market is driven by speculation rather than solid information. The Strait of Hormuz Traffic market has no current trades.

Iran’s formalized restrictions point to sustained disruptions rather than immediate resolution. With the blockade still in place, traders are skeptical of a quick US-Iran agreement. A YES share at 6¢ for April 15 pays $1 if resolved, a 16.7x return, consistent with low confidence in near-term resolution.

Watch for Trump statements and any naval deployments. A shift in US or UK military positions or resumed direct talks could move these odds sharply.

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