Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz to shipping amid Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

Iran announced it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping during a temporary ceasefire linked to the Israel-Lebanon conflict. The Polymarket contract for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 sits at 75.5% YES.

Market reaction

The April 30 market for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization is at 75.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday. The US blockade remains in place, limiting full normalization, and it takes just $354 to move the price 5 points, which means the contract is thin and susceptible to large trades. The May 31 market is at 91.5% YES, suggesting traders expect conditions to improve over the longer timeframe.

Why it matters

Total daily volume across these markets is $49,710, with $32,234 in actual USDC traded. The largest single move in the last 24 hours was a 4-point drop at 6:46 PM. The market is reacting to the reopening news, but the April 30 contract barely moved because the US naval blockade is still the binding constraint on full normalization.

What to watch

The reopening is a step toward easing tensions, but with the US blockade still in place, full normalization before April 30 requires a policy change from Washington. The current 50% odds reflect a coin flip, not confidence. At 75.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if traffic normalizes by April 30, a 2x return. To bet YES, you need to believe the US will ease its blockade within the next two weeks.

Watch for statements from the US 5th Fleet or any shift in IRGC naval operations. If Trump or CENTCOM signals a change in blockade status, expect rapid price moves on both contracts.

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