Iran to route Strait of Hormuz tolls through domestic banks

Iran plans to channel Strait of Hormuz toll payments through its banks, according to ISNA. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 is at 36% YES.

The decision to handle toll payments domestically signals Iran’s intent to maintain control over the strait, complicating efforts to normalize traffic. Traders in the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market are pricing in lower odds of traffic returning to normal by the end of April. The market sits at 36% YES.

This toll system is part of the IRGC’s “Strait of Hormuz Management Plan,” which charges up to $2 million per vessel. It appears designed to monetize control rather than escalate to a full closure, consistent with Iran’s broader strategy to navigate sanctions. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are both maintaining booking embargoes, and normalization under the current toll regime looks difficult.

The market has seen zero face value volume in the last 24 hours. The lack of trading activity suggests investors are waiting for clearer signals before committing capital. With no major price movements, the market is in a holding pattern.

For traders, the routing of toll payments through Iranian banks is a concrete obstacle to traffic normalization. Buying YES at 36¢ pays $1 if normalization happens, a 2.78x return. That bet looks risky without signs of Iran relaxing its toll regime or external powers negotiating a broader settlement.

Watch for announcements from Iran’s Foreign Ministry or changes in the IRGC’s stance. Any move by Maersk or Hapag-Lloyd to resume normal operations could also shift the market.

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