Iran urges Pakistan to back US embargo lift amid diplomatic talks

Iran is pushing Pakistan to support lifting the US embargo as part of advancing negotiations. The odds of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sit at 7.6% YES, down from 9% yesterday on the US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Locations market.

Market reaction

The White House confirmed that US officials are headed to Pakistan for talks. The no-meeting market has $6,833 in USDC traded, and the odds dropped accordingly. Liquidity is shallow: just $141 can shift the odds by five percentage points.

The US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal market for April 30 is at 11.5%, up from 10% yesterday. The longer-term June 30 permanent deal market ticked down to 56.0%, which points to trader skepticism about a quick resolution.

On sanctions, Iran’s push for Pakistani support has nudged the Iranian Demands Trump Agreement market up to 15% YES, as traders price in the possibility of Trump conceding on certain demands to keep talks moving.

Why it matters

The movement toward a meeting in Pakistan signals diplomatic momentum, but the thin liquidity means small trades can produce outsized price swings. A YES share in the no-meeting market is priced at 4.9¢, offering a potential 13.16x return if no meeting occurs by June 30. That payout reflects how heavily the market expects a meeting to happen.

What to watch

Official announcements from the White House or Pakistani government confirming scheduled talks. The arrival of Iranian officials in Islamabad and any subsequent coverage will directly affect these markets.

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