Iran urges US to prevent Israeli strikes on Lebanon ahead of talks

Iran’s deputy foreign minister called upcoming talks with the U.S. in Islamabad critical, urging the U.S. to prevent Israeli strikes on Lebanon. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 sit at 100% YES.

All sub-markets hold at 100% YES with no price movement in the last week. The April 15 market is at 100% YES. The April 30 and May 31 markets also sit at 100% YES. Actual USDC traded on the April 30 market is $687,289 per day.

The deputy minister’s call for U.S. restraint over Israeli actions in Lebanon points to tensions that 100% odds don’t leave room to price in. Israel’s ongoing military operations in Lebanon could constitute a ceasefire breach, which would jeopardize negotiations set to begin on April 10.

Combined actual USDC traded in the last 24 hours is $3,232,549. With all sub-markets locked at 100% YES, any future movement would require a concrete policy shift or military escalation. Buying YES at 100¢ offers no payout unless a drastic change occurs, which makes the position a pure bet that nothing goes wrong.

Traders should watch for statements from CENTCOM or the UN Secretary General. Any change in Israeli military operations or U.S. diplomatic posture could move these odds quickly.

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