Iran, US continue peace talks in Islamabad with ceasefire holding

Iran says it expects to hold another round of negotiations tonight or tomorrow as US-Iran peace talks continue in Islamabad. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100.0% YES.

Market reaction

The April 15 market at 100.0% YES reflects full trader confidence that the ceasefire will hold. The April 30, May 31, June 30, and December 31 markets are all priced at 100.0% YES. Traders are pricing in continued diplomatic progress across every time horizon available.

Why it matters

Trading volume is thin, but the uniform 100% YES pricing across all sub-markets means no trader is currently willing to bet against the ceasefire holding at any deadline through year-end. Vice President JD Vance is engaging Iranian officials in Islamabad, and the current ceasefire was brokered by Pakistan. At a 22¢ entry point, a YES share pays out $1 if the ceasefire holds, a low-yield position suited to risk-averse traders.

What to watch

Official announcements following these negotiations could move markets if they signal a breakdown or a formal agreement. Shifts in rhetoric from Trump, Rubio, or Hegseth would be the most likely catalysts for any repricing. Any confirmed progress or new intermediary involvement would reinforce the current odds.

API CTA

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.