Pakistani sources confirmed to Al Jazeera that both Iranian and US delegations are set to arrive in Islamabad on Tuesday for ceasefire talks. The odds for a diplomatic meeting involving US officials by April 30 now sit at 17.5% YES, down from 22% yesterday.

The simultaneous arrival of high-level delegations suggests coordination, but traders remain skeptical about a formal meeting. The drop from 22% to 17.5% reflects that skepticism. This market has seen a 6-point spike in the past on positive signals, but without official confirmation from either side, odds stay low.

The “Who Will Meet with Iran by April 30” market trades at $26,572/day face value, with $5,026/day in actual USDC. It takes just $276 to move the odds 5 points, meaning a single large order can swing the price significantly, as the recent 6-point spike showed.

Both delegations arriving in the same city is a concrete step, but traders are waiting for something more definitive. At 13¢, a YES share pays $1 if a meeting occurs by April 30, a 7.7x return. For that bet to pay off, the simultaneous arrival would need to produce a confirmed meeting within 12 days.

Watch for official statements from the White House or Iranian state media. If either confirms a meeting, expect a sharp move in odds. Pakistani ISPR announcements or tweets from involved US or Iranian officials could also signal a breakthrough.

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