Iran has announced it is in the final stage of drafting a framework agreement with the United States, a development that represents the most meaningful diplomatic progress between the two adversaries since conflict erupted in the region in February 2026.

The deal, structured as a 14-point memorandum of understanding, reportedly covers a cessation of hostilities, a temporary halt to Iranian uranium enrichment, US sanctions relief, and measures to guarantee freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

What’s on the table

Permanent limits on Iran’s nuclear program and the verification mechanisms to enforce them are punted to follow-on negotiations, which are set to begin within 30 days of the framework’s anticipated Iranian response.

The proposed agreement also includes provisions for releasing frozen Iranian assets, a long-standing demand from Tehran.

The framework could be announced soon under the name “Islamabad Declaration,” a nod to Pakistan’s central role in mediating the talks. Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir has reportedly served as a key intermediary, shuttling between the parties and hosting negotiations.

The dealmakers and the backdrop

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have been engaging directly with Iranian counterparts, operating under the Trump administration’s directive to find an off-ramp from the conflict that began in early 2026. Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi has been central to the discussions on Tehran’s side.

The negotiations trace back to April 2025 but were interrupted by the outbreak of hostilities. A ceasefire in April 2026 reopened the diplomatic window. As of May 6-7, 2026, a 14-point MOU was nearing completion, with a response from Iran expected within 48 hours. Reports on May 22, 2026 suggest a final draft may be announced soon.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been drawn into the discussions, reflecting how deeply the conflict has destabilized the broader region.

What this means for markets

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption under normal conditions. Any agreement that restores freedom of navigation through the strait and lifts sanctions on Iranian oil exports would inject significant new supply into global markets.

The sanctions relief component could affect compliance frameworks across the financial system, including crypto exchanges and stablecoin issuers that have spent years building out sanctions screening infrastructure. Any loosening of restrictions would need to be reflected in updated OFAC guidance, and the transition period could create regulatory ambiguity.

The unresolved nuclear verification questions are exactly the kind of issue that has killed US-Iran deals before. The 2015 JCPOA took years of painstaking negotiation on enrichment limits and inspections. Expecting those details to be worked out in a 30-day follow-on negotiation window feels optimistic, to put it mildly.