Iran has been circulating competing versions of an interim agreement with the United States, even as President Donald Trump maintains that a memorandum of understanding will be signed on schedule. The MOU, announced on June 13 and slated for signing on June 14, is designed to de-escalate a conflict that has been building for over three months.

The centerpiece of the deal: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a massive share of the world’s commercial shipping passes.

Dueling drafts and diverging priorities

Iran’s competing proposals reportedly range from $12 billion to $24 billion in frozen asset releases. The Iranian drafts also emphasize US naval withdrawal from the region and an end to blockades, framing any agreement as a restoration of sovereignty rather than a concession.

The US framework, by contrast, centers on a 60-day ceasefire period. That window would set the stage for deeper talks on Iran’s uranium stockpiles and the broader sanctions architecture.

Mediators from Qatar and Oman have been involved in the process, serving as go-betweens for two governments that don’t exactly have a track record of productive direct communication.

Despite the competing drafts, Trump has signaled confidence that the signing will proceed as planned. Final approvals remain pending on both sides.

What the Strait of Hormuz means for markets

Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply transits through this narrow passage between Iran and Oman. The prospect of reopening the strait has already started shifting market sentiment. Bitcoin climbed above $63,000 as the MOU announcement landed, a move consistent with the pattern of crypto rallying when geopolitical risk recedes.

What this means for crypto investors

The three-month escalation that preceded this agreement created a sustained overhang on risk assets globally. Bitcoin’s move above $63,000 on the MOU news suggests that at least some of that overhang is being removed. If the deal holds and the 60-day ceasefire period proceeds without major disruptions, that’s two months of reduced tail risk for markets to digest.

The competing Iranian drafts introduce a wrinkle. A $12 billion asset release and a $24 billion asset release are very different outcomes, not just for Iran but for how markets interpret the strength of the agreement. A deal perceived as too favorable to Tehran could face political backlash in Washington, potentially undermining its durability. A deal perceived as too stingy could collapse during the 60-day follow-up period.

For traders positioned in Bitcoin and other major crypto assets, the key variable to watch isn’t the signing itself. It’s what happens during those 60 days afterward, when the real negotiations over uranium stockpiles and sanctions architecture will take place.