Iran, US reportedly agree to extend ceasefire

Iran and the US have reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to extend their ceasefire, with the odds of a ceasefire announcement by April 30 at 100% YES.

All active sub-markets for the US-Iran ceasefire from April 30 through December 31 show 100% YES. But the market for Trump announcing a ceasefire breach by April 21 still sits at 14% YES, meaning some traders remain skeptical about the truce holding.

Trading volume on the ceasefire breach market is active, with $4,167 in real USDC traded over the past day. It would take $2,366 to move the market 5 percentage points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 3-point spike, suggesting some traders are hedging against a breakdown in talks.

The reported agreement is consistent with recent diplomatic activity involving intermediaries like Türkiye and Pakistan, though the source is social media rather than official channels. A YES share in the ceasefire breach market is priced at 14¢, offering a potential 7.14x return if the ceasefire is declared broken by April 21.

Watch for statements from Trump and any moves by intermediaries such as Oman and Qatar. Official confirmation of the truce extension or changes in operational language from CENTCOM would likely shift these markets.

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