Iran war closes Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 12M barrels per day

The probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 1.2% YES, down from 2% yesterday, even as the Iran war has closed the Strait of Hormuz and taken over 12 million barrels per day offline.

WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April holds at 1.2%, unchanged across multiple sub-markets. With just 10 days left in April, traders are clearly skeptical that prices can reach that level, even given the largest supply disruption in history. The market is not pricing in a sudden spike.

Volume is thin: $316 in USDC traded daily. It takes $2,188 to move the price 5 percentage points, moderate depth for a market this size. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 0.8% drop, which points to little urgency among traders to reprice the supply disruption.

If the Strait stays closed and tensions escalate further, the odds of WTI hitting $160 could move sharply. Buying YES at 1.2¢ pays $1, a 83x return. For that bet to make sense, traders need to believe a major catalyst arrives within the next 10 days.

Watch for statements from President Trump and Iranian officials on the Strait of Hormuz. Any sign of further military escalation or a breakdown in ceasefire talks could move this market fast.

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